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Brazil’s main betting association, ANJL, has raised concerns about a potential R$2.8 billion ($504 million) loss in sector revenue if the federal government moves ahead with its proposed tax increase. The plan would raise the betting tax from 12% to 18% to help offset the repeal of the IOF decree – an adjustment the industry fears could lead to a sharp drop in investment.

A formal report outlining these projections will be delivered to Treasury Minister Fernando Haddad this week. The analysis is based on 289 licence applications currently being reviewed by the Prizes and Bets Secretariat.

Why Operators Are Pushing Back

Under the current rules, operators are required to pay a grant fee and invest in public bonds to obtain a licence. ANJL estimates that if companies withdraw from the licensing process due to the proposed tax hike, the sector could lose up to R$2.4 billion ($432 million). A further R$400 million ($72 million) could be lost from reduced bond contributions, bringing the total projected loss to R$2.8 billion ($504 million) – roughly equal to the industry’s revenue between January and May this year.

Industry groups say the proposed increase creates legal uncertainty, especially since the 12% tax rate was already approved as part of Brazil’s official regulatory framework earlier this year.

Industry Response and Government Tensions

ANJL President Plínio Lemos Jorge warned that raising taxes on licensed operators could backfire, pushing more activity into the unregulated market. “There comes a point where illegal operations start gaining a competitive edge,” he said, noting that higher costs may force licensed firms to exit and discourage new entrants altogether.

He called on the government to prioritise bringing unlicensed platforms into the legal framework, pointing out that these operators still account for an estimated 60% to 70% of market activity, based on data from ANJL and the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR).

Treasury Minister Fernando Haddad, however, defended the tax proposal last week, arguing that betting companies “make fortunes in Brazil, generate few jobs, and send their profits abroad.” In response, Jorge suggested the minister’s comments were likely aimed at unlicensed operators, not companies following Brazil’s new regulatory rules.

What’s Next

The proposed tax increase is still being reviewed as part of a wider fiscal package. According to industry representatives, if it goes ahead, it could undermine Brazil’s efforts to establish a transparent and well-regulated betting market. How the Treasury responds to these concerns may play a key role in shaping the future of the country’s iGaming landscape.

Source: https://igamingbrazil.com/en/legislation-en/2025/07/15/betting-sector-projects-r2-8-billion-loss-with-tax-increase-proposed-by-government/