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Brazil’s legal sports-betting market is generating major public revenue just one year into full regulation but a new analysis suggests the tax pressure on licensed operators is set to intensify. A study by LCA Consultoria prepared for the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR) projects that the effective tax burden on bookmakers may rise steadily through the decade, reaching roughly 42% of GGR by 2033 once the reform package is fully implemented.
The same research argues that the squeeze is already significant today: under the current framework, taxes are estimated to absorb about one-third of bookmakers’ GGR, leaving less room for marketing, compliance investment, and competitive odds in a market still fighting illegal operators.
2025 Collections Show Scale of the New Regulated Market
The report estimates that in 2025, after the legal betting market launched, Brazil’s federal government collected around R$9.95 billion (about $1.9 billion) in taxes from bookmakers. When additional levies that are not directly administered by the Federal Revenue Service are included, total public revenue linked to the sector exceeds R$10.7 billion (about $2.05 billion).
Looking forward, the forecast path for the industry’s total tax load is clear: ~32% of GGR in 2025, 32.8% in 2026, and around 42% in 2033, aligned with the final phase-in of the new unified consumption tax IBS.
Why the Burden Rises and the Black-Market Risk
The projected increase is driven less by headline profit taxes and more by the build-up of indirect and payroll-style charges across the ecosystem. The study links the rise to higher indirect taxes on service providers that support bookmakers expected to reach 6.2% by 2033 and an increase in social contributions to 15%. In parallel, corporate profit taxation is modeled to become lighter: IRPJ and CSLL on net profit are projected to fall to a combined 3.5%, changing the mix of taxation rather than removing pressure overall.
The report also highlights how betting is treated versus other segments of the economy: bookmakers pay about 27% in federal taxes on GGR, compared with 15% for technology firms and only 4% for telecoms. IBJR warns that pushing the legal sector’s costs higher may unintentionally strengthen the unlicensed market especially when experts estimate 41%–51% of all bets are still placed on illegal platforms, diverting money away from the budget and weakening oversight.
Source: https://bookmaker-ratings.ru/news/brazil-skim-bukmekeram-pridyotsya-otdavat-pochti-polovinu-dohodov-na-nalogi-k-2033-godu-iz-za-nalogovoj-reformy/
