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In Brazil, authorities have blocked 27 forecast market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi. This was reported by Reuters on April 24, citing a statement by Finance Minister Dario Durigan. Initially, the figure was 28, but later the Ministry of Finance clarified that it was about 27 companies. By the early afternoon of April 24, the Polymarket and Kalshi websites were already unavailable in the country.
The government directly linked this step to the fight against illegal betting. The Brazilian Ministry of Finance stated that prediction markets operate according to the same logic as betting, and therefore should be subject to the same regulatory regime, including the blocking of websites and applications, as well as interaction with financial institutions to prevent transactions.
New CMN Resolution bans “bet-like” derivatives
At the same time, the Brazilian Monetary Policy Council adopted Resolution CMN No. 5,298, dated April 24, 2026. It prohibits the offering and trading of derivatives in the country if their underlying asset is associated with sporting events, online games, as well as political, electoral, social, cultural and entertainment events. The resolution comes into force on May 4, 2026.
Reuters writes that the document actually leaves in the permitted area only derivatives linked to predefined economic and financial benchmarks, such as price indices, interest rates and exchange rates. In analyzing the text of the resolution, Lefosse adds that acceptable references also include securities indices, credit risk, commodities and other verifiable economic and financial indicators.
The authorities consider prediction markets to be disguised betting
The government’s key position boils down to the fact that such platforms tried to present themselves as financial products through derivatives trading, although in fact they worked as bookmakers. This was stated at a briefing by Secretary for Economic Reforms of the Ministry of Finance Regis Dudena. The same logic is reinforced by a technical note from the Ministry of Finance, which explicitly states that forecast markets reproduce the main signs of fixed-odds betting.
It is also important that the ban also affects derivatives traded abroad if they are offered in Brazil, and further application and additional regulation will determine CVM. In other words, the authorities did not just block several well-known platforms, but tried to close the very regulatory loophole through which prediction markets entered the country as if it were a financial instrument.
Source: https://www.bcb.gov.br/estabilidadefinanceira/exibenormativo?tipo=Resolu%C3%A7%C3%A3o%20CMN&numero=5298
