Kalshi has officially entered Brazil through a partnership with XP International, marking the company’s first launch outside the United States. Under the arrangement, clients of XP’s Clear Corretora brand who hold an international investment account will be able to access Kalshi’s prediction market offering.

The rollout also gives Kalshi another milestone to claim: according to iGaming Business, it becomes the first prediction market operator to go live in Brazil, moving ahead of other local initiatives that had not yet launched commercially.

The product starts with finance and economic event contracts

Kalshi said the Brazilian launch will initially focus on financial and economic events, allowing users to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes. In its U.S. business, the company also offers contracts linked to areas such as sports and entertainment, but the first phase in Brazil appears more narrowly positioned around investment-style event trading.

The move had been signaled earlier by Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, a Brazilian native, who said in December that the company was targeting a Brazil entry in early 2026. With the launch now confirmed, she described XP as an important first brokerage partner for Kalshi outside the U.S. and framed the expansion as a way to widen access to what the company calls regulated prediction markets.

Brazil offers opportunity, but the regulatory picture is still unclear

The launch lands in a market where prediction markets do not yet have a dedicated formal regulatory framework. iGaming Business notes that Brazil’s licensed online betting sector has operated under stricter rules since the regulated market went live on 1 January 2025, including local headquarters requirements, KYC obligations, certification standards, a BRL30 million licence fee and a heavy tax load for fixed-odds betting operators.

That leaves prediction markets in what local legal experts describe as a grey zone: they are not clearly treated as iGaming, but they also lack a defined derivatives-style framework like the one used in the U.S. For Kalshi, that creates a window to move early; for the wider market, it raises a bigger question about whether prediction products will become a parallel lane to regulated betting in Brazil rather than fitting neatly inside the current gambling regime.

Source: https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/kalshi-announces-brazil-predictions-market-launch/